Hail to the Chief

My Vote

There it is. One of the most important things I’ve ever done.

My Picks

353		185
Obama ✓		McCain

It Didn’t Work

The sustained barrage of nastiness from the McCain campaign has definitely moved the needle, but not in the direction he was hoping. The biggest impact has been on his own favorability, which has continued its decline. Senator Obama has weathered the attacks unscathed, maintaining his favorability while widening his lead in the tracking polls.

There’s a new CBS/NYT poll out today: Obama 53% – McCain 39% (LV).

The TED Spread: Measuring the Credit Crisis

Two of my favorite media outlets (NPR and Slate) have been talking about a number I’d never heard of before: the TED spread. It’s the difference between interest rates on inter-bank loans and treasury bills. It can be used to gauge the health of credit markets, and right now it looks really bad.

An increasing TED spread indicates increasing risk aversion in the market. Investors are favoring [safer] government debt over corporate debt. Banks are afraid to lend to each other because the borrower could fail, or they might need cash to survive their own crisis.

The TED spread is normally around 0.5 percent. Over the past year, it’s bounced around between 1 and 2 percent. Economists started to freak out when it topped 3 percent last month. On Friday, it was as high as 4.65 percent.

The credit market has seized up. The plunging Dow is reflecting that liquidity is critical to business. Credit is the lifeblood of our economy. Until credit markets are righted, things will continue to get worse. Perhaps much worse.

Keep an eye on the TED spread.

Desperation Politics

Over the past few weeks, Senator McCain’s political fortunes have fallen nearly as quickly as my 401K. His erratic response to the financial crisis has not played well with voters. (Also, his running mate’s coach turned back into a pumpkin.) With just four weeks remaining before the election, polls are clearly and decisively trending toward Obama.

Desperate times call for desperate measures. The McCain campaign can’t get any traction on actual issues, so they’re taking a turn for the low road. They’re betting they can distract the American people by attacking Obama’s character. There are some problems with this strategy, however.

First, it’s nothing we haven’t heard before. Most of these jabs were thrown during the brutal primary season (thanks, Hillary). We have already factored them into our decision-making process.

Second, guilt-by-association will backfire. Yes, Obama served on a charity board with a reformed 1960s radical. There are plenty of unsavory skeletons in the McCain-Palin closet: Charles Keating, John Singlaub, Joe Vogler. Do they really want us to know who they’ve been palling around with?

Third, and perhaps most importantly, the American people are really hurting right now. While McCain is wallowing in petty attacks, voters are screaming for substance. It won’t take long for our frustration to turn to resentment.

The Dow dropped another 500 points today. The economic crisis is deepening, and John McCain is trying to change the subject by having Joe Six-Pack fire off zingers from the campaign trail. Something tells me that’s not going to resonate.

Taxes and the Election

ElectionTaxes.com estimates your 2009-2012 taxes under the plans proposed by John McCain and Barack Obama. My household fares better with Obama’s plan. Chances are that yours does, too.

The Washington Post published an info graphic summarizing the two proposals. The McCain plan tosses some crumbs to the middle class, but the big tax cuts are reserved for über-wealthy. The Obama plan rolls back the Bush tax cuts for the top 1%, and gives a bigger break to just about everyone else.

The Vice President

I have hesitated to blog about politics because it can be a divisive subject, and people are passionate about their candidates. Sometimes it’s just better to avoid controversy. I’ve been itching to comment on this subject for a few weeks, though. It’s time to let it out.

There have been 43 Presidents of the United States. Among them were 9 who succeeded to the office upon the death or resignation of their predecessors. That’s one in five. Twenty percent.

The Vice President is not a sidekick. She’s not there to “help shake things up in Washington”. The most important function of the Vice President is to become President should the President become unable to serve. This is serious business.

When Senator McCain named Governor Palin as his running mate, news agencies had to phone her office in Juneau to make sure they pronounced her name correctly. Most of us had never heard of her. Over the past few weeks, we have learned a lot about Sarah Palin. Some of it is endearing. Much is deeply concerning.

Set aside the inconsistencies between her rhetoric and her record, and shelve the myriad of major and minor scandals. What makes me most uneasy about Sarah Palin is her lack of preparedness on important issues: the economy, foreign policy, education, defense and healthcare. In the few instances where she has been challenged on things that matter, she has done little to build confidence in her abilities.

Why did John McCain choose Sarah Palin? It was transparently political. There were certainly more qualified candidates, but few who could do as much to excite the base. Exciting the base is not a qualification for high office. The Senator chose someone who can help him get elected, but not someone who can take his place. Some people have called this reckless, and I tend to agree.

We vote for the top of the ticket, but sometimes the Vice President must serve. Sarah Palin might be able to sell Air Force One on eBay, but does anyone want her taking the call when Russian tanks roll into Crimea? I sure don’t.

Recipe: Taco Seasoning

We’ve been using this Taco Seasoning recipe over the past few months. Our version cuts back the salt and red pepper flakes a bit. It’s quick, easy and better than the stuff in the packet.

Taco Seasoning

1 Tbsp chili powder 1/4 tsp garlic powder 1/4 tsp onion powder 1/8 tsp crushed red pepper flakes 1/4 tsp dried oregano

1/2 tsp paprika 1 1/2 tsp ground cumin 1 tsp black pepper 1/2 tsp sea salt

Election Poll Link Dump

With the fall campaign season officially under way, I am once again obsessed with political news. One of my favorite compulsions is the daily review of polling data. Here are some of the resources I use to get my fix:

• FiveThirtyEight.com (my new favorite)
• Pollster.com
• Electoral-Vote.com
• CQ Politics Election Map (and here)
• Real Clear Politics
• PBS NewsHour/NPR Election Map
• CNN’s Electoral Map

And more data & analysis …

• Political Arithmetik
• Polling Report
• Princeton Election Consortium